Leicester City Defy Gravity and Soccernomics

This time last year I wrote

Another Premier League season is drawing to a close and the whole circus shuts down for the summer. Fans will be looking for their club to strengthen push on to the next level. For the most part it won't happen some clubs will rise some will fall but unless either one of the elite  has a complete meltdown or a club from the mid-table mix has a year of all years then the table at the end of May 2016 will look pretty similar to this years and the glass ceiling will remain intact.

Well here we are in 2016 and Leicester City have made  me look a little foolish and to a lesser extent so have Spurs. To recap my hypothesis was based on the central premise that the financial advantages enjoyed by the top 6 which are reflected in their wage bills pretty much cemented their place at the top of the English game. The financial hierarchy is demonstrated in the following table

Rank	Current League Position	2014/2015	Wages (£m)
1	9	Chelsea	216
2	5	Man United	203
3	4	Man City	194
4	3	Arsenal	192.2
5	8	Liverpool	166.1
6	2	Spurs	100.8
7	20	Aston Villa	83.8
8	11	Everton	78
9	18	Sunderland	75.1
10	6	West Ham	73
11	7	Southampton	72
12	13	Swansea	71
13	14	West  Brom	69.8
14	16	Crystal Palace	68
15	10	Stoke City	67
16	17	Newcastle	65
17	1	Leicester	57
18	19	Norwich	48
19	15	Bournemouth	30.4
20	12	Watford	20.6

It should be noted that the newly promoted teams (Norwich,Bournemouth and Watford)  salary bills refers to the last year in the Championship typically these numbers will rise by 50 to 100 percent during first season in the Premier League although in this case Norwich's is already relatively high which in all probability reflects their recent Premier League history and as such might not grow quite as rapidly. 

Leicester City finished top with one of the lowest wage bills in the division which is truly remarkable and stands everything I previously wrote on it's head. In fairness I wasn't the only one and Leicester City were priced at 5000/1 by the bookies at the start of the season. To put that probability into context had the Premier League been run in it's current format since the Bronze Age Leicester City would be expected to have won it once.

While there was woeful under performances from some of the elite the plain fact is that clubs who on the face of it better equipped than Leicester to take advantage of the situation failed to do so. An opportunity was lost by half a dozen teams they didn't have terrible seasons but put alongside Leicester's rise there really is a sense of an opportunity spurned. In particular Arsenal performed in line with expectations but in a year where the recently dominant Manchester clubs and Chelsea hit the self destruct button, Arsenal should have been the next taxi off the rank but their engine stalled. 

Maybe Economic Determinism in football is dead

This year all of the major European leagues have been contested by the top 2 or 3 wealthiest clubs within the league and in many instances won by either the richest or the second richest. The Champions League semi finals were contested by 3 out of the top 6 richest clubs in Europe, so no Leicester City are the outlier the wonderful exception to the rule.

Is the Premier League Different? 

The nature of the Premier League TV deal makes the league a little different in a number of respects.

1. A relative even distribution of TV money 

There is a disparity between the wealthiest English clubs and the rest but it is far less pronounced than other European Leagues.

The wealth in European Leagues is far more heavily concentrated.

In Spain Barcelona and Real Madrid are 3 times richer than Athletico Madrid and at least 4 times wealthier than the fourth wealthiest and anything up to 20 times wealthier than the smallest. To put this into context this would like giving a League One team entry to the Premier League.

In Germany Bayern are fifty percent richer than Dortmund who in turn are 30% richer than Schalke and no other club even has 25% of Bayern's income

France PSG are 4 times richer than any other team in the division they are so wealthy that I think their revenue is greater than the poorest 10 Ligue 1 teams combined.. 

2. It is the biggest deal in Europe

To put the Premier League TV revenue into context according to Deloittes West Bromwich Albion are  the least wealthiest club in the Premier League that appears in their "Football Rich List" and they are richer than all but

• 4 Italian Teams
• 3 German Teams
• 3 Spanish Teams
• 1 Turkish Team
• 1 French Team

So while WBA are relative paupers they are wealthier than most teams on the continent and therefore even they are able to attract better players than similar sized clubs in other leagues.

3. The big beasts aren't that big

Question: Why are Alexis Sánchez and  Mesut Özil Arsenal players?

Answer:  Because Barcelona and Real Madrid didn't want them.

For all their wealth the top Premier League clubs have 4 other beasts to compete with when it comes to the top talent and certainly when that talent is at it's peak they tend to lose out to the Spanish giants and in some cases to PSG and Bayern Munich who are often be the first choice for the elite players in Ligue 1 or Bundesliga. As such they cannot sign and retain the players that would truly elevate above the rank and file of the Premier League.

Conclusion 

Leicester City are the glorious exception to the rule but it doesn't disprove the rule. It remains unlikely that a less wealthy club will disrupt the European football elite. If it was going to happen anywhere it would be in England because as we have seen the League is the most competitive in the world and there are factors which make the lesser lights in England a little bit tougher than their counter parts elsewhere in Europe

As for next season will the old order reestablish itself? Probably although Leicester City's place in the hierarchy is about to be transformed by a huge influx of money from the Champions League, regression to mean maybe but the mean has moved and it probably doesn't include relegation.

Beware Revolution in Progress

Dawson that's your Man!!!   - Tony Pulis

Welcome to the Workers Revolution. It started in the depths of the Winter of  Discontent the Illustrious Leader of the Revolution ,Tony Pulis has lead the troops on the long march to Premier League safety and is now preparing to storm the winter palace.

As with all Workers Revolutions the ruling class of the old the regime were quickly dispatched and some of the more obviously bourgeois elements sought refuge abroad, Blanco for instance quickly scarpered to Argentina to avoid the proletarian delights of Pulisball.

Once the immediate objectives were secured a more far reaching purge got underway various bourgeois and revisionist cabals have been rooted out and sent to the Gulag or Norwich. Such enemies of people as the much reviled Terry Burton and his secretive side kick Mervyn Day are no longer in office. In the short term the Glorious Leader will take on the onerous task of overseeing the continual struggle for Premier League survival aided by a cadre of true believers such as Gerry Francis and David Kemp.

When you make Revolution you cannot mark time -Lenin

The Revolution is now gathering pace attacking full backs are a distant memory and the flawed notion that possession of the football had anything to do with winning football matches has been banished. We will defend our clean sheet with revolutionary fervour and beat down any opposition to Pulisball even if the decadent passing game has reached such resolutely proletarian strongholds as Stoke.

When will it end? There is no end only revolutionary toil and there is no alternative no opposition just a few intellectuals casting envious glances in the direction of South Wales where the freedom and prosperity go hand in glove. If the populace grows tired of the shackles and a diet of bread and circuses then maybe something changes but in the meantime the football at West Bromwich Albion will be grimmer than a wet Wednesday evening in Vladivostock.

Mid - Table Blues

Below is the Premier League table based on wages and it's resemblance to the actual league table is uncanny.  There are teams that have over or underachieved but for the most part the league table is an accurate reflection of a team's wage bill.

Rank	League Position	2013/2014	Wages (£m)
1	4	Man United	215
2	2	Man City	205
3	1	Chelsea	193
4	3	Arsenal	166
5	5	Liverpool	144
6	6	Spurs	100
7	15	Newcastle	78
8	20	QPR	75
9	16	Sunderland	70
10	17	Aston Villa	69
11	11	Everton	69
12	13	West  Brom	65
13	12	West Ham	64
14	9	Swansea	63
15	7	Southampton	63
16	8	Stoke City	61
17	10	Crystal Palace	46
18	18	Hull City	43.3
19	14	Leicester	36.3
20	19	Burnley	25

There are a few important things to note about the above table.

1. The numbers are for the 2013/14 year and as such do not take account of recruitment and contracts that have been signed since

2. The figures quoted for Burnley Leicester and QPR relate to their last season in the Championship. No that is not a mistake QPR did manage to finish sixth in the Championship with a salary bill equivalent to 8th in the Premier League.

If we were to look at these numbers in 12 months time I would expect the rankings to be similar but Hull's and Palace's wage bills to be closer to £60m and both Leicester and Burnley would be paying considerably more. The Premier league FFP regulations might have a dampening effect on the wage spiral but given that retained profit and profit's from player sales and any growth in other revenues can fund increased wages I would be surprised if most of the club's wage bills had not risen by the time the 2014/2015 season kicked off.

One can can argue the merits of individual team's performance in relation to their wage bill (let's all laugh at QPR) but the broader trends are more interesting and explain the polarisation between the top 6 and the rest of the Premier League.

Firstly the difference between Newcastle (7th) and Stoke (16th) is just £17m or a Wayne Rooney and a Jordan Henderson. Not that either player is likely to be rocking up at St James Park any time soon but it gives a measure of the difference in wages between the clubs. In theory Newcastle's top earners will earn a bit more than Stoke's and that should be reflected in the depth and quality of Newcastle's squad compared to Stoke's. The fact that has not been reflected in the league table means that things are not quite right at Newcastle or Stoke are doing something right but the gap is bridgeable.

However the difference between Spurs (6th) and Newcastle (7th) at £22m is greater than that that exists between Stoke and Newcastle. That is the real glass ceiling whilst a long way behind their rivals for the Champion's Leagues Spurs are way ahead of the rest of the division in terms of spending power. Thus there is a cluster of clubs who are scrabbling for places in the lower half of the division with no way of breaking out and in reality not much difference in the quality of the playing squads.

Every season a team breaks out of the mid table quagmire Southampton Everton and Newcastle have all done so in recent years and unfortunately their reward for success is Europa league football. This is a huge problem because the depth of squad required for a successful European campaign alongside a Premier League campaign costs in excess of £100m. Even with the additional income that a Europa League campaign might generate those clubs cannot sustain a wage bill of that magnitude therefore they tend to regress back into the pack the following season.

Even without the burden of Europa League football it is very difficult for a club to buck the relationship between wages and league position for any extended period of time. Firstly if a group of players overachieves the most likely outcome is they regress back to their norm the following year. Furthermore the bigger clubs often poach players and coaching staff from the best of the rest and regression becomes a lot more likely than progression.

This further underlines the achievement of Southampton this season under the leadership Ronald Koeman having lost their Head Coach and 5 of their better players albeit for significant fees they managed to build on the previous season's achievements. However it is a difficult trick to turn and one that cannot be sustained forever. Les Reed the club's technical director has stated an aim of qualifying for the Champions League within 5 years. Unless something very dramatic happens on the south coast it isn't going to happen. Eventually Southampton are going to have to match the wages offered by teams with a lot bigger turnover than themselves or face continual rounds of sale and replacement which inevitably will go wrong at some point.

The majority of clubs and their fans are in the same boat stuck in desperately competitive mini-league with no means of upward escape but with the ever present danger of downward ejection. How fans feel about this varies and I think they might be summed up as

Just happy to be here

Crystal Palace,Swansea City,Hull City,Leicester City,Burnley,Southampton

Teams that either have more years outside the top flight than in it, recent experience of football in the lower reaches of the football league and near financial ruin. Generally just being in the Premier is great from the fan's perspective particularly when it is bolstered by a relatively comfortable league finishes in the case of Southampton Palace and Swansea.    

Is this it ?

West Brom Stoke West Ham Sunderland

Teams which have always lived in the shadow of more illustrious neighbours but have been in the top flight more often than not and are currently been in the Premier League for an extended period. Here there is a general sense of unease amongst the fans who probably realise their club's limitations but are frustrated by their role as the league's supporting cast.

Sleeping Giants 

Aston Villa and Everton

Clubs with big fan bases traditionally regarded as "big clubs" but simply unable to live up to their fan's expectations. The ownership at both clubs have realised that they can either manage the club within it's means or chase the dream. They chose sensibly not to go broke and in the case of Villa the adjustment has been a painful one.

Confused 

QPR

Countless millions have been thrown at this vanity project. The model is totally unsustainable the ownership have grandiose plans put their money where their mouth is but the whole thing is a shambles. After four years of inflated expectations and mismanagement the club faces an uncertain future in the Championship and QPR fans must be bewildered by the experience.

Seething 

Newcastle

After 20 years of mismanagement false dawns and shockingly a relegation, the third best supported club in the league and the 7th largest by turnover is lurching from one self induced crisis to another and the fans are not in the least bit happy. The economic reality for Newcastle is the same as the majority of clubs in the division but somehow the club has made that reality particularly unpalatable for the fans.

Managing the Reality

If seventh is the top end of most team's realistic expectations how do the majority premier clubs keep their fans engaged? While it is tempting to say look at Newcastle and do the opposite to that and a lot of it is just good PR but remember genuine progress on the pitch is virtually impossible.

1. Manage Expectations - Tough to do on the one hand the reality is not very exciting and many clubs are over achieving by just surviving in the league and fans do understand this but it does not need to be rammed down their throats. Clubs should always talk about making progress even when frankly it is unlikely and if  a reality check is required reference Man United not clubs that are seen as rivals

2. Respect the club's traditions Fan's emotional engagement with the club is about symbols and shared memories. There is everything to be gained by honouring them and very little to be garnered from changing them to try to appeal to a global audience.  Man U are a global brand with a world wide following not because they wear red but because they are the most successful club in the global TV era.

3. Value for money Ticket prices are an issue for teams that do not have a well healed following or one that is global. On the one hand a mid-table club needs to get every penny it can in to compete but it cannot offer a guarantee of success and the feel good factor that brings. In short most clubs are selling a broken dream and that cannot be sold at a premium price. Yes some fans are happy to see the worlds best players strut their stuff at their local ground but most are concerned about their team and how it performs and perpetual mid-table mediocrity is not very exciting.

4  The cups are a lifeline, Fans thrive on the excitement of cup competitions and clubs need to look beyond the apathy shown towards the early rounds (partly created by their own neglect and by the way football fans purchase football) and see the energising impact that a cup final appearance has on the mid-table clubs that make it to finals.

5. Engage fans A lot of the ill will that clubs have generated through half baked ideas could be avoided if clubs just talked to their fans and gauged their reaction. Fans might be overly wedded to their traditions and innately conservative but equally they want the club to succeed and will embrace change if it is required to move the club forward but owners need to at least try to take the fans with them. Clubs that exist in a state of perpetual war between fans and ownership seldom prosper.  

6. Style Matters Sam Alladyce and Tony Pulis must hate Swansea. Up until Swansea's promotion the the standard approach to surviving on a tight budget was a dogged defence hard work and grind out results, which was characterised by Pulis at Stoke and Alladyce at Bolton.  Swansea's emergence showed that free flowing passing football could be achieved on a budget and they became the style template that many fans aspired to rather than the more direct style that characterised many of the mid table teams in the Premier League. From a club insiders perspective survival is all that matters but fans crave entertainment and expect their team to at least to try to play decent football and ultimately fan discontent curtailed Alladyce's and Pulis's tenures at West Ham and Stoke.

7. Youth Development is absolutely key those clubs that do it well have a far better chance of breaking out than those that don't either because they can supplement their squads with home grown players or benefit from the profit generated by selling players at inflated prices to the Champions League elite. Equally fans are more likely to warm to players that have a strong connection with the club that has been established over the years that the player spends in the club's academy.  

Another Premier League season is drawing to a close and the whole circus closes down for the summer. Fans will be looking for their club to strengthen push on to the next level. For the most part it won't happen some clubs will rise some will fall but unless either one of the elite  has a complete meltdown or a club from the mid-table mix has a year of all years then the table at the end of May 2016 will look pretty similar to this years and the glass ceiling will remain intact.  

January Sales Madness

Despite the best efforts of the Sky Sports team to whip up some excitement around the January transfer window most clubs do the bulk of their transfer business in the summer.

Only the desperate plunge headlong into the January market which is any commentator will tell is difficult with clubs reluctant to sell their best players but eager to unload expensive duds.

The bad news is that the Albion were in the market which tells it's own story. A new manager wanting to stamp his mark on the squad and a couple of summers where the club has got it wrong has lead Albion into being a lot more active than anyone at the club would like.

In summary Albion's business at the close is

In 

McManaman and Fletcher 

Out

Samaras, Blanco, Varela, 

So we lost three  and gained two. The shape of the squad is pretty much unaltered on the face of it although Pulis has moved on players that he was never going to play and replaced them with ones that he might.

However those bald facts barely tell the story of a day which was remarkable in it's twists and turns. There were two additional signings lined up Martin Olsson from Norwich and Carlton Cole from West Ham which were scuppered in the closing hours of the window. As part of the deal that would have bought Olsson to Albion Graham Dorrans was heading to Norwich and there were on going reports of Brown Ideye heading off to the Middle East.

Both Cole and Dorrans were at their new clubs waiting for the all clear by the time things unravelled although it was never clear whether Olsson made it to the Hawthorns or was stuck in snow or unable to agree terms. Cole was on the threshold of joining the Baggies when a deal to take Adebayor from Spurs to West Ham collapsed and lead to a heated exchange between the player and his current manager (see here).

How much interest the club had in selling Ideye remains to be seen but even allowing for Cole's arrival it would have left us short of a striker and I guess unless another deal could have been lined up then there was never any real prospect of Ideye moving on in this window although there has to be a long term question mark over his future at the Hawthorns and the club may yet have to take a hefty loss on their record signing. There is no such question mark over Dorrans it is absolutely plain his future lies away from the Hawthorns, tonight there is talk of the deal being resurrected as a loan deal.

Pulisball or bust?

How far down the road to Pulisball have we travelled? Firstly the arrival of Darren Fletcher from Man United is a vital part of the jigsaw as it gives Pulis a midfield all rounder that is key to making his 4-4-2 work. There is no doubt that Fletcher will go straight into the side and the only doubt is whether he will partner Gardner or Yacob.

Callum McManaman is pretty much a straight swap for Varela and as such will provide width on the right, a left sided counter part might have been on Pulis's wish list but for the time being he will have to make do with his current options which is Chris Brunt.

The non arrival of Martin Olsson leaves an interesting dilemma, Albion are not short of left backs there are 3, Pocognoli, Baird and Davidson (albeit he's been away at the Asia Cup) and it would appear that none are to Pulis' taste. The last two games has seen Lescott deployed as a left back with mixed results (bad and very bad) and it is clear that Albion's star Centre Back is not happy in the role. Personally I don't care which of the three he goes with but persevering with the Lescott experiment is doomed to failure.

Up front we are short of a Pulis style target man and Cole was lined up to provide the muscle and aerial threat that makes Pulisball effective. We are now very dependent on Anichebe with Ideye,Berahino and possibly Sessegnon providing support. I would worry if we lost Anichebe to injury and the medical staff will probably be working overtime to keep Vic on the pitch.

Conclusion

This window was very much the first step on the path to Pulisball but the certain trends emerging already. The signings and targets were unimaginative in every sense of the word. All were British based known quantities which is the hallmark of Pulis work in the transfer market.There was a plan to the recruitment he was filling in the obvious gaps in the squad although the left back thing is a bit of a puzzle. The full blown revolution will wait until summer if we are still in the Premier League I think will be in for an even more dramatic deadline day at the end of August.  

It' s a Dog and It Barks

Within moments of the Albion team being announced on Monday evening for the game against Everton there were dozens of tweets along the lines of where's Varela? The answer he was at home packing his bags for Parma.

The Portuguese winger was an undoubted talent but his time at West Brom had been blighted by injury and lack of fitness. Although there were signs that he was capable of making a contribution. However it was plain from the off that Pulis did not fancy him and he has been shipped out as part of the clear out that accompanies the appointment of a new Head Coach when the transfer window is open and a team is under going a turnaround.

To date Samaras Blanco and Daniels have also left and in truth these players were on the fringe of the team even under Irvine but certainly didn't have a future in Pulisball. I would guess that anything up to half the squad does not fit the Pulisball model and whatever happens during this window more players will be leaving in the summer.

Pulisball is based on a rigid 4-4-2 which sits deep and counters with wingers being the sole source of creativity in the team. It is based on solid defensive organisation and getting the ball forward quickly. It requires players to be physically fit and disciplined. Players are judged by their contribution off the ball as much as on it.

Throughout his management career Pulis has tended to shun rotation both at Stoke and at Palace he had a core of players he played week in week out. That is part of Pulisball methodology the more close knit the unit is the stronger is it's bond and the stronger the team ethic. As such he will settle on a line up he trusts and unless something happens to radically change things those players not in the side may as well pack their bags.

Bearing in mind this window is only the opening salvo in the Pulis revolution outlined below is how I see the squad shaping up or in some cases shipping out.

Goalkeepers Foster Myhill with the promising Rose being promoted to the first team as backup. Neither keeper is prone to thinking that they really are footballers and playing silly buggers with the ball at their feet which I guess would be a trait that would give Pulis a minor coronary.

Defenders are expected to defend and are judged on their contributions as defenders and this includes the full backs. It is little surprise that Gamboa and Pocognoli are out of favour both can be barnstorming as axillary wingers but can be a little flakey as defenders for Pulis this is the wrong way round. Wisdom and Baird are solid defenders hence their inclusion.

With regard to Centre Backs he will have a favoured pairing and it will be played week in week out. At the moment it would appear to be MacAuley and Lescott. The question marks around the centre backs are not specifically to do with the style of play but ones which any coach need to resolve at some point, namely does MacAuley have another year in his ageing legs? Is Dawson good enough to be first choice? If Olsson is not a regular starter will he be content to get the occasional outing  as a squad player? None of the answers to these questions will be resolved much before the summer unless we recruit another Centre Back which an answer in itself although to which question remains to be seen.

Midfield  A 4-4-2 requires central midfielders to be all rounders and be able to cover the ground box to box. Of the current squad only Gardner fulfils the specification. Mulmbu whose form has been sporadic for a little while is out for the next 4 to 6 weeks in any event and I fear that his indiscipline in a positional sense might not find favour with Pulis longer term.

Yacob presents an interesting dilemma. He is absolutely not a central midfielder in a 4-4-2. His whole footballing education and instinct is to play as a no 5 in the classical Argentine tradition which in the modern game is most often associated with a 4-2-3-1 formation. The danger when deployed in a 4-4-2 it becomes a 4-1-4-1 which was pretty much the shape at Everton on Monday night although Yacob delivered defensive master class. While Yacob's willingness to tackle anything that moves will find favour with a coach that values defensive solidity above all else in the short term but longer term if the team is to become more progressive I suspect Yacob will be replaced with a genuine all rounder.

There are three players you could argue are best deployed as attacking midfielders behind a lone striker  Morrison, Dorrans and Sessegnon the bad news for those players is that role don't exist in Pulisball and if they are going to have much of a future they need to find a new role in the team. Morrison is too light weight to do the heavy lifting in the central midfield and while Dorrans is more physically robust there has to be a real question mark over his ability particularity as a central midfielder at Premier League level.

I could write a whole blog on the enigma that is Sessegnon but regardless of how he is deployed it is difficult to see Pulis being happy with the one brilliant performance in five particularly when he is not in the mood he really can be totally anonymous . Coaches have lost their jobs backing Sessegnon,  Pullis won't nor will he deploy him centrally unless he pushes him up alongside the main striker or perhaps as a winger. In truth I cannot see this working long term.

Finally Chris Brunt who now Varela has gone is the only wide player at the club (aside from possibly Sessegnon). Ironically if played with an attacking full back like Pocognoli Brunt can be quite effective in a 4-4-2. but he absolutely is not the type of winger required to make Pulisball work.

Attackers.

In a team which will typically sit deep a target man is a must ideally one that is good with his back to goal,win more than his fair share of possession and bag a few goals. Anichebe is okay in many respects but has a question mark over his fitness and has never been prolific. Neither Idye or Berahino are classic target men in the Pulisball tradition (think Crouch Fuller Beattie and Chamakh ) but partnered with the right target man i.e. one that would drop a little deeper and allow their partner sit on the shoulder of the last defender could be effective and deliver the team's main goal threat.

Ideye has not flourished since his arrival and part of that is his attributes are very much the same as Berahino's therefore it is difficult to imagine a partnership between the 2 working. Plainly at the moment Berahino has won the battle for the shirt and it does not look Ideye will be around beyond the summer if he is not moved on by the end of this month.

The question marks surrounding Berahino's future are nothing to do with Pulisball but are entirely dependent on his willingness to sign a new contract and even then the possibility of a stellar bid materialising cannot be discounted.

Recruitment 

This summer's work is currently being undone and the club is busy in the market trying to recruit as many as four players. There are many questions as to how system that delivered success as recently three summers ago could have completely unravelled in such a short space of time. I think the departure of Ashworth was key and since then there has been growing disconnect between the Recruitment Department and the club's Head Coaches.

With a bigger role in scouting for the coaching staff under Pulis with an extra coach hired and two Senior Scouts let go it should be hoped that any new arrivals will be hired to fill a role in the Pulisball model. Thus far the players where there is a confirmed interest namely McManaman. Fletcher and Ameobi are all players that fit the template and it is obvious where they might fit into the side.

However the one thing that the arrival of Pulis will not change is the player budget and fans that think there will be any improvement in quality of the players in the squad will be disappointed. The players might look better but that is only because they are playing in a set up that fits their attributes.

Conclusion

The arrival Pulis marked the end of a number of Albion careers and the beginning of the end for others. Pulisball is what it is, those fans that are looking for creativity in the middle of the park will  not find it. Players that don't deliver on a consistent basis won't be tolerated and the full backs will not be rampaging forward. To pine after these things or to expect free flowing high scoring football is pointless that is not Pulisball and never has been. You know exactly what you are buying into when Pulis is put in charge of your club you are buying a dog and it barks so you should not be surprised nor complain when it does.

Who You Going to Call ?

Track back or die, okay?

Stoke City and West Brom two similar clubs were promoted  from the Championship in 2008. Albion were managed by Tony Mowbray and Stoke City by Tony Pulis.

It was Cavaliers v Roundheads. Mowbray's side was a fluent passing team which won plaudits for the style of football as they swept to the title. Stoke on the other hand were dogged, hard working and played rugged no nonsense percentage football.

Many people thought the Albion were better prepared for life in the Premier League, alas that was not the case. Mowbray's team carried on getting plaudits for playing the right way but never the less finished rock bottom the following season. Stoke unencumbered by any notion of the beautiful game and often criticised for their robust approach stayed up comfortably. One - nil to the Roundheads.

Mowbray's departure in May 2009 (not sacked despite his side being relegated) marked the end of the Baggies Cavalier phase each management appointment since was a little bit more pragmatic than the last (Pepe Mel aside). The free flowing football was quietly ditched for something a little bit more solid and less expansive particularly under Hodgson. but the football was never as industrial as that served up by Pulis's Stoke sides.

Less than seven years on the chief Roundhead is about to take charge of the one time Cavaliers, which is a bit of a turn up for books. The fact that he has been invited to take the reigns is a reflection of how high his stock is following his transformation of Palace last season from relegation certainties to a team that looked entirely at home in a mid-table berth. To some extent his reputation has been further enhanced by the fact that Palace have regressed this season which makes him look even more like the Red Adair of the Premier League.

Equally the fact the board seems to be prepared to push the boat out financially and compromise on coaching appointments is a reflection on how the team has lost it's way recently and needs a strong personality to take it by the neck and give it a shake. The moment seems right for Pulis to come in fight the fires and steady the ship.

Longer term I am not sure that it is a marriage made in heaven. I personally still hanker after the Cavalier days of Mowbray. Swansea and Southampton have both shown that smaller clubs can thrive in the Premier League without resorting to hoofball, although both of those clubs laid down their blueprints while they were in the lower leagues and not burdened by the annual war of attrition to stay in the Premier League. Although the other leader of the Roundhead tendency Sam Allardyce has shown that given the players even he can move to a style that is a little easier on the eye. So maybe Pulisball will evolve into something a little bit less industrial there were signs that happened at Palace but let's not kid ourselves you would never of mistaken his Palace side for Brazil.

I am under no illusion that just staying in the Premier League is an achievement and 5 straight years in the top flight is not be sniffed at and if we want a sixth appointing Pulis is entirely logical, but  I feel it is surrendering any hope that the quality of our football will evolve or that the youngsters in our academy will be given a chance of breaking into the first team squad. For the club to grow that needs to happen, to get beyond the annual war of attrition to stay in the league we have to be bold. Unfortunately the Pulis appointment is the opposite and while we cling onto the hard won Premier League status maybe we are right to be cautious and maybe only when that battle is lost will we be able to properly regroup and rebuild under a regime that brings the Cavalier spirit back.

Much Ado about Saido

Berahino leading English marksman in the Premier League

Last year Saido Berahino burst onto to the Premier League scene with a winning goal at Old Trafford. At that point it looked like the Baggies had an unearthed a genuine prospect. A new contract was quickly agreed to keep him at West Brom for the next few years. He made 32 appearances in total but his form was at best fitful and his star was definitely on the decline on the back of some unwelcome tabloid reports that suggested that he was fonder of partying than training.

This "attitude" problem seemed to be at the heart of the post match bust up following the Cardiff home game when he gave the ball away in the dying seconds of the game which lead to Cardiff's equaliser. So enraged was James "the hit man" Morrison that he reportedly cuffed the youngster round the ear. At the time I thought that whilst Saido had shown naivety in giving the ball away there were nine Albion players behind the ball and there were at least three or four senior pro's who were as culpable in allowing Cardiff to equalise. I suspect that Morrison's over reaction was a consequence of Saido's big time Charlie attitude behind the scenes as much as anything that had happened on the pitch,  

By the close of last season Berahino's career at the Hawthorns seemed to be sinking into the morass that was Albion's Annus horribilis. From bright young thing to infant terrible in the space of six months, most Albion fans were losing patience with him and few would have suggested building the team around him.

New Season New Beginning  

The 2013/2014 season was one to forget for West Brom and change was needed. During the closed season Alan Irvine was appointed into the Hawthorns hot seat. This might have been the first piece of good fortune that Saido enjoyed because Irvine has a reputation for nurturing young talent from his Everton days. Equally a new Head Coach meant a clean slate and an opportunity to move on from his previous mistakes. The second piece of good fortune was that Albion's record signing Brown Ideye spent much of the pre-season kicking his heals in Nigeria because his visa application was delayed by mind numbing red tape and religious holidays. His delayed arrival gave Berahino a chance to stake a claim for a starting place.

It is fair to say that after grabbing 2 goals on the opening day Saido has gone from strength to strength. He currently has 7 goals from 9 games and has been one of the leading lights of the England under 21 set up. He is rapidly developing into the one of the best young players in the league and as such he is one again being thrust into the limelight. At this moment his coaches and teams mates have nothing but praise for him he seems to be enjoying life under Irvine and working diligently on his game.

The difference between this year and last is quite marked. It is notable that he looks physically stronger, at a slender 5ft 10 Saido is not the biggest centre forward and he will always be competing against larger Centre Backs but it is vital that he can hold up the ball up under physical pressure which is starting to happen. Secondly his decision making and awareness is improving. Finally he has always had an eye for goal but there seems to be more composure in front of goal and this was demonstrated most clearly against Man United when he had one chance and took it with great aplomb, when he was through on goal I would have bet my house on him hitting the target something I wouldn't have done last season.

Siren Voices 

So far so good, but a recurring theme of this blog is that fans and pundits are too quick to rush to judgement. A good run of form turns a decent prospect into a world beater and a couple of uncharacteristic errors turns a good player into the worst player ever. In this fevered environment it is small wonder that young players lose their way. Equally there are the siren voices that can lead players astray

In Berahino's case  the penny seems to have dropped, either he has worked it out for himself or he has at least listened to someone who has told him a party lifestyle and the life of a professional athlete are incompatible on any number of levels. Firstly there is the physical aspects of partying into the wee small hours and secondly there is negative PR, neither is good for a player. It would be unreasonable to expect a young man to live the life of Trappist monk but equally when you are making headlines for your lifestyle rather than your performances on the pitch it is time to take stock.

If Saido ignores the party siren he also needs to ignore the lure of the big move siren. Given his current form speculation is rife about a move to more glamorous surroundings. As an Albion fan I want two things to happen firstly I want Saido to live up to his undoubted potential develop into a 15 plus goals a season forward and secondly I want him to retire from the game as in his mid 30's with every major honour and still be a Baggie. The first is possible but the second is unlikely.

It is the nature of the modern game that once a player shines at a relatively modest club the vultures start to circle. From the player's view he only has one career and if he wants to scale the summits of Champions League football that is not going to happen at West Brom. The latest rumour is of interest is from Liverpool who are rumoured to be on the verge of offering £25m to lure him away which is £10m more than Spurs were apparently to be prepared to pay a month ago which demonstrates how fevered the speculation is that surrounds the game in general. The story will run forever on the basis of big club struggling for goals Berahino seems to be scoring for fun answer buy Berahino. Eventually it will come to pass but now is too soon for both player and club.

What Next ?

It is almost unreasonable to hope that Saido will score goals at his current rate and a down swing in his form is almost inevitable. It is then that we will find out if his apparent new found maturity is for real, it is easy to do the right thing when things are going well but it takes inner resolve to carry on when things are going less well. If he comes through that then we have to say he is the genuine article.

A new contract is in the pipeline and hopefully this will not go to his head in quite the same way as his first big contract did but from the club's perspective a long contract is vital to secure a top price should the almost inevitable move happen, but it is also pushes it down the the road for at least twelve months and quells the constant press speculation which is good for both club and player.

With regard to England he is going to play a key role in the under 21 Championship and given the choices that the England manager has he is probably only a couple of injuries from a call up to the full squad, but he is still behind Rooney Wellbeck and Sturridge. He needs two good seasons but by the time the 2016 Euro's come around he might force himself into the reckoning.

Club and player need each other in equal measure at this point in time. Saido is making a contribution in the here and now but the brighter his star burns the better for the club in the future. He is the poster boy for the club's academy which has struggled to hold onto talented youngsters but from now on we can point to Saido and genuinely say "stay with us if you are good enough you will get your chance"  and that is a watershed moment for the club which has struggled to re-establish a tradition of youth development which once produced the core of each generation of Albion players.

I do not want to get carried away by a few good performances but I am hopeful that in Saido Berahino we have found a home grown talent that we can be proud of.

Post Script

This week Saido was called up to the England senior squad, which was not entirely surprising given his form and Sturridge's continued absence. It might be a little too early for him but with limited options available to Roy Hodgson  it was almost inevitable that he would turn to Berahino. From a playing perspective given the quality of the opposition in Scotland and Slovakia Saido should be able to make the step up. However the level of attention surrounding England and the media circus is something that Saido has yet to encounter and something that many players who have been bought up at far higher profile clubs than West Brom have sometimes struggled to adjust to.  

 Almost as soon as the call up was announced at the pre-game  press conference Berahino said "My  ambition will be to play in the Champions League and be involved in England seniors and go and play in big trournaments like the World Cup and the Euros".  Not an altogether unreasonable  ambition for the top English goal scorer in the Premier League, but obviously sparked yet another flurry of transfer speculation and a few brickbats from the West Brom twitteratti.

Aside from obviously raising his profile a couple of notches the call up changes nothing with regard Saido's future as a Baggie. His contract position is such that there is no pressing need to sell him regardless of who comes calling in January. Everything else hinges on two things his continued form and secondly if he signs an extended deal with Albion. If his form dips interest will quickly dry up but assuming it does not and without a new deal there is very little hope that we will be retain him beyond next summer or at the very latest the following year.

I think we should enjoy his talent for the time being and trust the club to extract maximum value from the deal when the day comes for him to move on to the bigger stage.